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Health Affairs article warns of contingencies and uncertainties under Medicaid expansion

Posted on October 27, 2011 | No Comments

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An article recently published in Health Affairs, “Policy Makers Should Prepare For Major Uncertainties in Medicaid Enrollment, Costs, And Needs For Physicians Under Health Reform,” presents findings from a simulation model using two nationally representative data sets to estimate Medicaid eligibility, participation, and population growth. The article warns that the number of Medicaid enrollments, associated costs, and number of new physicians needed could vary hugely under Medicaid expansion. The estimated number of people enrolling in Medicaid for the first time could vary by more than 10 million when the program changes are implemented in 2014. Additionally, costs could range from anywhere between $34 billion to $98 billion per year. The new enrollments could necessitate at least 4,500 and at most 12,100 new physicians. The study results indicate that policy makers should prepare for a great deal of unpredictability associated with Affordable Care Act’s (ACA’s) Medicaid reform.

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On March 16, 2012 the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) released a final rule regarding Medicaid eligibility under the Affordable Care Act. A summary of the final rule was previously posted on healthreformgps.org. This Update summarizes the key provisions of the final regulation, which also contains certain interim final rules on which further comment is sought. The Final Rule, which takes effect January 1, 2014, addresses a wide array of issues raised in the 2011 proposed rule.
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Medicaid provides health insurance to the poorest and most medically vulnerable populations. Low-income pregnant women, children, and very poor parents of minor children are the majority of beneficiaries; Medicaid also provides coverage for children and adults with severe disabilities, as well as “wrap-around” coverage for low-income Medicare beneficiaries who cannot pay for services and cost-sharing that Medicare does not cover, particularly institutional and home- and community-based long-term care. Medicaid is jointly funded by states and the federal government and administered by states under broad federal standards.
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