Health Affairs article warns of contingencies and uncertainties under Medicaid expansion
Posted on October 27, 2011 | No Comments
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An article recently published in Health Affairs, “Policy Makers Should Prepare For Major Uncertainties in Medicaid Enrollment, Costs, And Needs For Physicians Under Health Reform,” presents findings from a simulation model using two nationally representative data sets to estimate Medicaid eligibility, participation, and population growth. The article warns that the number of Medicaid enrollments, associated costs, and number of new physicians needed could vary hugely under Medicaid expansion. The estimated number of people enrolling in Medicaid for the first time could vary by more than 10 million when the program changes are implemented in 2014. Additionally, costs could range from anywhere between $34 billion to $98 billion per year. The new enrollments could necessitate at least 4,500 and at most 12,100 new physicians. The study results indicate that policy makers should prepare for a great deal of unpredictability associated with Affordable Care Act’s (ACA’s) Medicaid reform.





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